Following 2025's quartet of billion-dollar earners, industry watchers are eyeing four major releases in 2026 that could reach the coveted ten-digit milestone at the global box office.
Avengers: Doomsday leads the pack with what analysts consider a guaranteed billion-dollar run. Robert Downey Jr.'s return to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, even in a different capacity, provides enormous star power. However, with production costs reportedly exceeding $600 million, the film will need substantially more than $1 billion to be considered truly profitable.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day ranks second in likelihood, with Tom Holland's web-slinger remaining one of Marvel's most bankable properties. While this installment takes a deliberately smaller-scale approach compared to the multiverse spectacle of No Way Home, the franchise's proven track record suggests strong performance ahead.
Toy Story 5 enters as the third most likely candidate, though the series shows signs of diminishing returns. The franchise peaked with Toy Story 3's inflation-adjusted $1.576 billion haul, with Toy Story 4 dropping to $1.352 billion. Questions persist about whether audiences need another chapter after the near-perfect conclusion of the third film, though the Pixar brand likely remains strong enough to push past the billion-dollar mark.
The Mandalorian & Grogu rounds out the list as the riskiest bet. Disney's return to theatrical Star Wars releases comes after the Solo disappointment eight years ago. While the Disney+ series built a devoted following, its popularity peaked in seasons one and two, with the third season receiving a more muted response. The film's trailer generates excitement, but lacks the event-film energy that typically drives massive box office numbers.
Last year saw Ne Zha 2, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash all cross the billion-dollar threshold, setting a benchmark for 2026's hopefuls to match.